Reasons for optimism about the upcoming Georgia Football Season

photo credit: hoyasmeg

Earlier in the week Chris Low published a post on ESPN.com of a few SEC rankings for the upcoming 2010 season where he placed Georgia 7th out of 12.A few people thought that was too low and as a result somebody was bound to respond.  Year 2, a contributor to the SB nation ALL-SEC ALL THE TIME blog TEAM SPEED KILLS offered a response that suggested a more optimistic future specifically on the offensive side of the ball. Year 2 uses Georgia’s 2006 team as a comparison to this fall’s team along with using 2009 individual stats to support his theories.

2006 was Matt Stafford’s freshmen year at Georgia.  It was very up and down and at times a bumpy ride– par for the course when you decide to start a true freshman right away- they really get put through the ringer.  While rising red-shirt junior Logan Gray is also competing for the starting job, the winner of the competetion is likely to be one of the two freshman- Aaron Murray of Tampa and Zach Mettenberger of Watkinsville.  While Murray is favored and is perceived as a more accurate passer and more mobile; Zach Mettenberger has the strongest arm of all three of the QBs.

Regardless of who wins the job, the new starter WILL NOT BE learning the offense for the first time or learning nothing that he can’t build on top of what he has already learned- in short, it should not be as raw of an experience as it would be for a true freshman QB like it was for Matt Stafford or Eriz Zeier back in 1991.  It is because of such circumstances that Year 2 suggests that whomever the starter is, he should have no trouble exceeding Stafford’s 2006 numbers. See numbers and quote below–

Season	Player	Comp-Att.	Pct.	Yards	Yds./Att.	TD-INT	Rating
2006	Stafford	135-256	52.7%	1749	6.83	7-13	109.0

The rating of 109.0 put Stafford in 86th place in the country, sandwiched between the immortal Anthony Morelli of Penn State and Georgia Tech’s Reggie Ball (yes, that Reggie Ball). No matter whether its Aaron Murray, Zach Mettenberger, or Logan Gray taking the snaps in 2009, this level of performance is more than attainable. In fact, since all three have been in the program for a year or more, I’d expect any of them to surpass Stafford’s freshman stat line.

What helps out the eventual quarterback is the wealth of guys Georgia has at the skill positions. Stafford’s top two running backs in ’06 were Kregg Lumpkin (798 yards, 4.9 YPC) and Danny Ware (326 yards, 4.0 YPC). Last season, Georgia’s top two running backs were Washaun Ealey (717 yards, 5.7 YPC) and Caleb King (594 yards, 5.2 YPC), and both are back this year. Provided that neither of them unexpectedly fall off, the running back situation looks better than 2006?s was.

In 2006, Georgia basically had a running back committee running game plan.  Now, they have a potential 1-2 punch with the Ealey-King Duo.  In 2007, in addition to Knowshon Moreno’s 1334 yards, Thomas Brown was an excellent number 2 providing 779 yards rushing.  Because of the strong running game in 2007, Matt Stafford did not have to do as much as he would otherwise.  It offered many oportunities for him to burn the defense and throw deep. In 2008, Knowshon Moreno did not have a solid number 2 that was anywhere near as effective as Thomas Brown.   The balance between King and Ealey could prove effective.

In the most basic of football theories, if you lean on the running game and are successful in doing so by moving the ball incrementally and for first downs, you should be able to open up some passing lanes for the QB to throw through–IN PLAIN ENGLISH- the more succesful your running game is, the more the opposing defensive play caller must respect it and alter his calls accordingly to better defend it. The more successful your running game is the more time will tick of the clock which means  less time for your defensive personel to be on the field.  All of these things would make life a lot easier for the Georgia Bulldogs, let alone a redshirt freshman quarterback, this coming fall.

Which bring us to our next area of focus- receivers and tight ends.  Year 2 offered this take–

At receiver in 2006, Stafford’s primary targets were TE Martrez Milner (425 rec. yards) and WR Mohammed Massaquoi (366 rec. yards) with 30 catches apiece. A.J. Green is better than either of those guys, which certainly helps. A season ago, redshirt freshman WR Tavarres King (377 rec. yards) and TE Orson Charles (374 rec. yards) surpassed Massaquoi’s ’06 totals.

Part of that has to do with Joe Cox throwing for about 40% more yards in ’09 than Stafford did in ’06, of course. Even so, there’s definitely talented targets for the new quarterback to throw to. Going down the list of Stafford’s 2006 targets, it’s easy to say that UGA is better off at receiver/tight end in 2010 than it was in 2006.

Former Georgia lineman Ben Dukes recently wrote a post on his blog pointing out how many Georgia receivers caught a reception last year and that Georgia fans have many reasons to be optimistic about their future success. He raises a lot of solid points.

All this is great about the offense but what about the defense?  Despite returning six starters from last year’s team, the Georgia defense will be playing in a brand new defensive scheme. Even if the running game is successful enough to control the Time of Possession you would think it would be hard to avoid some significant or at the very least some minor growing pains in the new defensive system. So, what about the defense?

Year 2 covers that as well by using LSU(2006-2009) as a comparison. LSU despite winning back to back BCS bowl games including the 2007 BCS Championship, the defense took a slide in 2007 and even bigger slide in 2008 when LSU coach Les Miles opted to use duel-defensive coordinators instead of replacing Bo Pellini who left LSU to take the Nebraska head coaching job in 2008.  Miles in 2009 took a more assertive approach to the matter and hired former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis to fix things.  Year 2 points out in his post that things worked out better for LSU in 2009.  Why can’t the same thing happen for Georgia with new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham? Year 2 offered this–

It might be a bit much to ask to get all the way back down to 2006?s 17.6 points allowed per game, but I think it’s reasonable to think UGA will end up somewhere in the neighborhood of 2007?s 20.2. Based on recent history, that would give the Bulldogs about a top 30 defense nationally, which is reasonable given Richt’s highly rated recruiting classes and a fully competent defensive staff.

Another way to put it, is that when you are sitting on the bottom there is no place to go but up.  In 2009, Georgia was close to the bottom of the conference in a lot of defensive categories.   How much worse could they have possibly gotten and is it even possible for things to get EVEN WORSE in 2010? Maybe but I seriously doubt it.  The odds are against it.   Is the problem fixed– NO.  However, I think  maybe a new scheme, a new defensive coordinator with a new defensive philosophy is exactly what the doctor ordered.

Every interview you read, all the defensive players sound fired up like they were ready to go yesterday almost like they were reborn.  I also expect better results this year from Todd Grantham’s new look Georgia defense.  They get to start with a clean slate.  What is more exciting than that?    If they achieve even moderate success in comparison to past years’ struggles, it would be considered a success. So, I like Georgia’s odds of succeeding.

Year 2 also talks about Georgia’s 2010 schedule which in comparison to the past few years is not exactly murderer’s row. He compared Georgia’s non-SEC east/non-conference schedule of 2006 with that of 2010.  Here-

2006 Schedule	2010 Schedule
Western Kentucky (I-AA)	Idaho State (I-AA)
UAB (bad CUSA team)	UL-Lafayette (mid-range Sun Belt team)
Colorado (bad)	@Colorado (bad)
Georgia Tech (won 9 games)	Georgia Tech (probably 9/10 game winner)
@Ole Miss (Orgeron era)	@Miss St. (likely marginal bowl team)
Miss St. (Croom era)	Arkansas (solid bowl team or better)

Regardless of what anyone will tell you, winning all 6 of those games and maybe 3 or 4 others on the schedule is not out of the question.  The schedule, the potential of having an effective running game, an experienced offensive line, a receiving corp that is now not only talented but experienced as well, and a new defensive coaching staff eager to prove its worth are strong reasons to be at least a little bit optimistic instead of crapping yourself and running around like a chicken with it’s head cut off. Plus, 10 starters returning on offense and 6 on defense.

It all can only help.  Whether any of it actually delivers any real results, we shall have to wait and see.  It’s not really the point.  The point of this whole post was despite some obvious concerns about the upcoming Georgia football season, the Sky is not falling.  I would prefer to wait and see how it all plays out before I start making crazy/batshit declarative sounding statements like “If Coach Richt doesn’t win this many games, he is gone”. I just think that this kind of crazy talk/articles by members of the Alabama press fanning the flames of this crap is just ridiculous.

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